(Chartr) No-One Is Invincible to Coronavirus:

Source: Center For Disease Control & Prevention (CDC)

The widely discussed fact that younger people are less at risk from coronavirus is 100% true. This data from the Centre For Disease Control & Prevention (CDC) is one of the best estimates we have for how this disease affects those who become infected. Hopefully it confirms what you already know; that fatality rates for confirmed cases in the 20-44 age group are extremely low: around 0.1-0.2%.

However, low fatality rates can lull people into a false sense of security. The CDC also estimates that the proportion of 20-44 age group confirmed cases that have required hospitalisation is somewhere between 14% & 21% so far.

Given that you’re reading a newsletter about data we’re aware that we’re probably preaching to the converted, but these hospitalisation rates really do emphasise the importance of flattening the curve.

If millions of 20-44 year olds get Covid-19, the vast majority will be end up being totally fine. But if almost one-fifth of them need hospital treatment in order to be fine, then hospitals will get overwhelmed extremely quickly.

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Matt’s note: while random sampling “antibody tests” done in New York may initially suggest that death/hospitalization rates could be lower than initially believed due to a large portion of cases being asymptomatic [without symptoms] (presymptomatic?), it’s unclear to me if there there could be false positive rate in the test, a sampling problem skewing these numbers, or if the new numbers are indeed accurate.

Regardless, even in the best case the numbers being presented thusly are much higher than the normal range of known flu-like illnesses and are greater in magnitude than I’m personally comfortable with.


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